Saturday, March 25, 2017

Beyond Gen II

This is my own note for how to prepare for future generations, based on two references: one and two.

Generation III (nothing to prepare for)

Babies (requires hatching):
Azurill (Marill baby)
Wynaut (Wobbuffet baby)
Non-babies (can be caught in wild):
Ralts> Kirlia > Gardevor (25, and 100 candies)
Nosepass
Roselia
Duskull > Dusclops (50 candies)
Chimecho
Snorunt > Glalie (50 candies)
Clamperl > Gorebyss (50 candies, evo item: deepseascale)
Clamperl > Huntail (50 candies, evo item: deepseatooth)
Feebas > Milotic (50 candies, evo item: prism scale, item introduced in Gen5?)

Generation IV (Need to save candies)

Babies (require hatching):
Happny (Chansey baby)
Mime Jr. (Mr. Mime baby)
Munchlax (Snorlax baby)
Bonsly (Sudowoodo baby)
Mantyke (Mantine baby)
Chingling (Chimecho (gen 3) baby) 
Evolutions from previous generation:
Magneton > Magnezone (100 candies, no evo item)
Lickitung > Likilicky (50 candies, evo item: rollout)
Rhydon > Rhyperior (100 candies, evo item: protector)
Tangela > Tangrowth (50 candies, evo item: ancient power)
Electabuzz > Electivire (50 candies, evo item: electrizer)
Magmar > Magmortar (50 candies, evo item: magmarizer)
Eevee > Leafeon (25 candies, evo item: moss rock)
Eevee > Glaceon (25 candies, evo item: ice rock)
Porygon2 > Porygon-Z (most likely 50 candies from Porygon instead of Porygon2 based on the past pattern, evo item: dubious disc)
Togetic > Togekiss (most likely 50 candies from Togepi instead of Togetic based on past pattern, evo item: shiny stone)
Aipom > Ambipom (50 candies, evo item: double hit)
Yanma > Yanmega (50 candies, evo item: ancient power)
Murkrow > honchkrow (50 candies, evo item: dusk stone)
Misdreavus > Mismaguis (50 candies, evo item: dusk stone)
Gilgar > Gliscor (50 candies, evo item: razor fang)
Sneasel > Weavile (50 candies, evo item: razor claw)
Piloswine > Mamoswine (most likely 100 candies from Swinub based on past pattern, evo item: ancient power)
Kirlia (Gen3) > Gallade (100 candies, evo item: dawn stone)
Nosepass (Gen3) > Probopass (50 candies)
Roselia (Gen3) > Roserade (100 candies, evo item: shiny stone)
Dusclops (Gen3) > Dusknoir (100 candies, evo item: reaper cloth)
Snorunt (Gen3) > Froslass (50 candies, evo item: dawn stone)

Generation V
Non-babies (can be caught in wild):
Cottonee > Whimsicott (50 candies, evo item: sun stone)
Lampent > Chandelure (50 candies, evo item: dusk stone)
Petilil > Lilligant (50 candies, evo item: sun stone)

Generation VI

Non-babies (can be caught in wild):
Helioptile > Heliolisk (50 candies, evo item: sun stone)
Doublade > Aegislash (50 candies, evo item: dusk stone)
Spritzee > Aromatisse (50 candies, evo item: sachet)
Swirlix > Slurpuff (50 candies, evo item: whipped dream)

Evolutions from previous generation:
Eevee > Sylveon (25 candies, evo item: affection, fair-type move?)

Generation VII

Evolutions from previous generation:
Pikachu > Raichu* (50 candies, a different Raichu, evo item: thunder stone)
Exeggcute > Exeggutor* (50 candies, a different Exeggutor, evo item: leaf stone)
Cubone > Marowak* (50 candies, a different Marowak, at night, no evo item)

Friday, March 10, 2017

The Secret of Egg Hatching

The mystery behind egg-hatching has been unveiled by Silph Road researchers (here) [1]!

For a long time, the understanding has been a Pokestop picks a 2km/5km/10km egg based on an egg-probability distribution, then pick a Pokemon within that distance according to another probability distribution.  For example, the chance of getting a Lapras is $p(Lapras) = p(10km)*p(Lapras|10km)$.  Now there is a much simpler and elegant new theory: eggs are simply determined by one probability distribution - one that is associated with Pokemon alone.  Hatchable Pokemons are assigned to four categories: Common, Uncommon, Rare and Ultra Rare, with hatching probability ratio 8:4:2:1.

The assignment of Pokemons based on their hatch distance and rareness is shown in the table below [2]:

Converting this chart to counts:

RarenessWeight 2km5km 10kmTotal by Rareness (weighted),
Row Sum
Common86102144
Uncommon416153136
Rare214316
Ultra-Rare1113519
Total by Distance (weighted),
Column Sum

11516139315

Imagine there are a total of 315 eggs in a basket, Lapras (ultra-rare) has only one egg, Geodude (common) has eight eggs. Pokestop randomly picks an egg from this basket, distance (egg color) is just a by-product. Then the probability of hatch a particular Pokemon can be calculated based on its category (regardless of its egg distance):
common: 8/315 = 2.54%,
uncommon: 4/315 = 1.27%,
rare: 2/315 = 0.63%,
super rare: 1/315 = 0.32%.

The egg drop probability from a Pokestop can also be explained:
2km: 115/315 = 36.5%,
5km: 161/315 = 51.1%,
10km: 39/315 = 12.4%.
For Lapras, the chance of getting a 10km egg is 12.4%, the chance of that 10km egg being Lapras is: 1/39 = 2.56%.  The overall probability of hatching a Lapras is 1/315 = 0.32%.  This is quite consistent with our previous observations (see my previous Blog entry on hatching).  We can further infer that to hatch a Lapras with a 50% chance, one should hatch 218 eggs, including 27 10km eggs.  To hit an 80% chance, one should hatch 506 eggs, including 62 10km eggs!

Let us check on Gen 2 babies. Babies are all uncommon with a probability of 1.27%, despite of their distances.  So to hatch a particular baby, one needs to hatch 54 eggs (50% chance) or 126 eggs (80% chance) (I hatched Tyrogue with 108 eggs, in agreement).  Pick Tyrogue in particular, one should walk 25 or 59 5km eggs in order to hit 50% and 80% chance, respectively.  Although these many eggs would probably cost you $50 in incubator purchase, it is still way more feasible than hatching a Lapras.

This is indeed a beautiful theory that explains all the mysteries behind eggs! Congratulations to the researchers!

Reference

[1] https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiBroGQzczSAhXGjFQKHZckDJoQqUMIMjAH&url=https%3A%2F%2Fthesilphroad.com%2Fscience%2Fsecret-egg-rarity-tiers-pokemon-go&usg=AFQjCNHhNlqpvW0rLfDNP8byWlLfOhPA5A&sig2=6hWcKtL7eeiMm71pxKNA7w
[2] https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/5ylpzj/chart_of_egg_rarity_divided_by_egg_distance/

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Gen II - Catch Them All

last updated on April 6, 2017 (Gen II Complete)

Key Gen 2 Milestones:
Apr 6, 2017: Dragon Scale obtained from a spin right after 7-day streak! Complete!
Mar 30, 2017: Up-Grade obtained via 7-day streak.
Mar 21, 2017: Niantic reinstates gauranteed evolution item at 7-day streaks. Counting down to the completion of Gen 2 Pokedex;.
Mar 4, 2017: Tyrogue Hatched! Balboa Park Totodile nest, earn candies for Feraligatr.
Mar 1, 2017: Unown Found!
Feb 26, 2017: Coronado Island Hunt.
Feb 25, 2017: Girafarig Nest and Hunt in Carlsbad.
What are Gen 2s?

Source here:


Babies: Only from Eggs

They are not in wild, the only way to get babies is to hatch.  Even if you got all seven babies during the Christmas event, there is one more baby, Tyrogue, needs to be added to your Pokedex.  So buy incubators and start walking.  The secrete of hatching has been cracked recently (See my other blog entry), Tyrogue and all other babies are as hard/easy to hatch as Chammander, Bulbasaur, Oddish, or Larvitar (with 1.27% chance).  In contrast, Porygon and Lapras are 4 times harder!  So hatching a Tyrogue is definitely can be achieved.  In addition, hatching is an economic way of getting high IV and high CP pokemons, you will have to catch a lot in wild in order to get such pokemons, wasting lots of gas and eventually probably spending more money.  Every 54 eggs give you 50% chance to hatch a Tyrogue, not bad at all.
Tyrogue was finally hatched on Mar 4, 2017.  I walked 760km and hatched 489 eggs right before Gen 2 started (see blog entry), which means it took me 100km and 108 eggs to get Tyrogue.  Based on the "hatch secrete", 36.5% eggs were 2km eggs, to which I always applied the free incubator, the total cost is 108*0.63.5*$0.50/hatch = $34.29.  However, this also covers some other high-IV hatches, such as Mantine, Larvitar, Dratini, Mareep, Gilgar, Aerodactyle, Stander, Phanpy, Wooper, Slugma, etc.

Egg chart here:
Gen 2 starters are not hatchable: Chikorita, Cyndaquil, Tododile, which is actually good news, as they have nests and their removal increases the chance for hatching others.

Rares: Location, Location, Location

Remember our Gen I lesson, some Pokemons only favor coastal areas, so it is important that we visit places such as Coronado Island, La Jolla Cove, Oceanside Pier, etc. in San Diego.  Coastal-friendly ones include Lantun, Mareep, Magcargo, Forrestress, Croconaw, Bayleef, Remoraid, Quilfish, etc. However, many of these can be evolved, e.g., Forrestress can be evolved, where Pinco is not hard to get, Croconaw should be evolved from Totodile, Magcargo from Slugma, Lantun from Chinchou (seems to be missing in the egg chart), Bayleef from Chikorita, so do not be lazy here.  (The water event starts on Mar 22 certainly is a blessing for those who do not live by the beach, best of all, you get a chance to fill that empty Lapras slot!)

Nests: All Starters Have Nests

Make use of Silph Road Nest Atlas, which is pretty accurate now (link here).  I got my Girafarig at the Alga Norte Community Park (maybe 10 spawns per hour), my Sneasel at 4S Ranch Heritage Park (maybe 3 spawns per hour).  Balboa park is an extremely strong Totodile nest, it is mostly easier to catch enough candies to evolve Feraligatr yourselve than counting on encountering one in wild (feraligatr seems to be specific to coastal regions).
Girafarig nest at Algo Norte Community Park.

Balboa Park is an extremely strong Totodile nest.  You should be able to get enough candies for Feraligatr within two hours (hint: do not forget to use the Pinap Berry on weak CP ones to magnify your candy bonus)! There are 2-3 Totodile within nearby sightings constantly, take advantage of it before nest change.  Balboa Park changed into a Gastly nest on the 16th nest change, so when you see a nest of interest, act decisively.


Evolved Forms: Those Require Items are NOT in Wild

My data analysis shows any Gen II that require items (stones, steel case, dragon scale) will not exist in wild. This now has been confirmed by other analyses.  So the only way to get the following eight Pokemons is by obtaining items and evolving them yourself:  Porygon2, Bellossom, Slowking, Steelix, Kingdra, Scizor, Politoed, as well as Sunflora. Umbreon and Espeon are also not in wild.  Blissey and Corbat are in wild, as their evolution does not require items.  Items are rare from Pokestop spins, however, it seems the Day-7 Streak always give an item (happened to me as well) (Update: Evolution items from day-7 Streaks were later removed by Niantic and now reintroduced on March 21!  Without this bonus feature, it was estimated that one evolution items can be expected for every 250 Poke Stop spins, which was terrible for rural player.) So given enough time, these Pokemons are basically in your pocket, if you have played Gen I well.  Make sure get a good IV Eevee, before triggering the Umbreon and Espeon evolution.  (I have got a total of nine items so far, including one 7-day streak item, but I still need dragon scale and Up-grade.)

Items requires for Gen 2 evolution: here
Original Post here

Great news came on Mar 21, 2017!

Items requires for future generations: here (basically only 3 extra sun stones are needed)

April 6 is my 7-day streak day.  With great hope, I spinned and got a King Stone (8:33AM), how disappointing.  This is my 16th items.  I immediately did the math, the probability of an item is either Up-Grade or Dragon Scale is 1/8, the other three items are twice more likely, 1/4 each (based on some statistics on SilphRoad).  So the chance for not getting Dragon Scale 16 times on a roll is  $\left(\frac{7}{8}\right)^{16}=0.12$.  I was not super unlucky, but definitely disappointed.  As I clicked my Pogo+ on my way to work to collect some XP points, the first PokeStop I spin after getting off the highway (this is the spin right after my 7-day spin) was a Dragon Scale!  What a nice way to end my Gen II collection. 


The last wanted item - Dragon Scale was obtained with a drama.

Super Rares: Social Media & Crowd Sourcing

The chance of encountering super rares is very low by your own, so you need to read social media and find spawn information shared by other players or other sources to maximize your chance.  Still remember how hard it was to catch a Lapras, this will apply to some Pokemons in Gen II.

Here is a tentative list of super rares: Meganium (like Venusaur), Typhlosion (like Charizard), Feraligatr (like Blastoise), Togetic (as hard to capture as Dragonite), you might have a better chance to hatch its baby Togepi and walk the candies (well, I have not hatched Togepi after 100 Gen 2 eggs, so not easy either), Ampharos, Jumpluff, Forrestress (better evolve it from Pinco), Hitmontop, Tyranitar (like Dragonite, very rare, seems to favor coastal region, but Lavitar spawns universally, unlike Dratinit.). [hint: Feraligatr can only be found in coast.  Tyranitar can be found in inland.]

Again, I would really recommend evolve Meganium, Typhlosion, Feraligatr, Jumpluff and Tyranitar yourselves, instead of hoping to catch a one in wild.  Not only the chance is low, but also the likelihood of catching both a good IV and high CP one is much more rare and requires many many rare catches.  Is it not too hard to evolve one for them.  Ampharos may be hard given how rare Mareep is, some buddy-walking may be required. You may have a better chance to catch a Hitmontop than hatch two Tyrogue (save one, and use one for evolve).

Region Exclusives: Corsola and Heracross.  Tropical and South American, respectively.  Just visit enough gyms to collect them their silhouette.  The best strategy is to not let them bother you.
Corsola and Heracross were met in gyms.

Unown: Too Hard to Catch

Unowns (a-z) 26 alphabet. After one week of Gen 2, we finally see two spawns in Coronado.  It is much more rare than Lapras, so I would say forget about them, unless you live close to Coronado.  Unown is so rare that there is no point in visiting Coronado just to hit the jackpot, you most likely won't be able to.  We can only hope Niantic will increase its spawn rate or introduce future Unown events.

PS: Unown is super super rare, but there is always someone who wins the lottery.  There have been four Unowns reported so far, one in La Jolla Shores, two in Coronado Island, one in Strand (also Coronado Island).
An Unown was repored at La Jolla Shores on Mar 1, 2017.  Nearly had to get into water to catch.


Enough Unowns have been reported and there is absolutely no pattern in where they spawn.  They show up in places where normally no player would be around!  I do know a guy in Houston, who had an Unown encounter purely by lucky (without using any trackers), the majority of Unown encounters were assisted by trackers (how likely it is you happen to be at a small street at 9:30pm, and that success repeated several times?)  If you really want Unown, the only feasible way is to use your local Tracker, particularly those channels that are specifically created for Unown, so that you get alerts the moment it is broadcast.  Due to the wide spread of possible Unown spwan spots, every second counts in order to arrive at the spot on time.  Even with trackers, Unown hunting is so difficult that every Unown caught will be an unforgettable memory.  People who caught multiple Unowns in multiple cities/continents are very likely doing GPS spoofing, and they use a global Unown tracker (I do not want to name it), just don't let that bother you (sicne not all trackers report Unown letter, even you do not spoof, this tracker is useful to find out what Unown letter is spawned.  Usually spoofers will report the letter minutes after its detection, so that it may save you an unnecessary full trip.).  I forgot to mention that there are 28 Unowns (26 letters plus "!" and "?", only the 26 letters are released in Gen 2).


The Unown family.  Although Unown is only counted as one Pokedex entry, it has 28 difference manifestations.  While most players were praying for just one, some are hunting for all 26 alphabets using a global tracker and GPS spoofing tricks.


A minute after the super super-rare Unown Y was spawn in London, multiple players celebrated their completion of the Unown Gold Medal for collecting all 26 letters!  Do you want to go that far for Unown?

More than a dozen Unown-hunting vehicles showed up at a small street for Unown (I). Residents were probably shocked! 

San Diego Unown map based on 23 spawns.  Except Coronado island is an Unown hot spot, Unown spawn has been spreaded all over San Diego.


Good Candies to Save:

According to a Silph Road post: Togetic, Murkrow, Misdreavus, Aipom, Yanma, Gilgar, Sneasel and Piloswine will have evolutions in Gen IV, so we do need to stock their candies, instead of using all of them for their power-ups.  The same post also mention Porygon2 will have its evolution in Gen IV, so Porygon candies are still needed.

See post here:  Pokemons for Gen 4
Evolution forms of Magneton, Lickitung, Rhydon, Tangela, Electabuzz,
Magmar, Porygon, Togepi, Aipom, Yanma,
Murkrow, Misdreavus, Gilgar, Sneasel, Swinub

Even more forward thinking to future generations, see thread here and reference here.

Region Exclusive

Tauros nearly disappears nowadays.  Farfetch'd is not bad, still availabe in Hongkong.
Screenshot from https://pokemon.appx.hk/ for Farfetch'd and Corosal.

The update region-exclusive map is here: (embedden as well)





Saturday, February 18, 2017

Generation II Early Data Analysis

Last Updated: 2/20/17 8:30am.

Availability Analysis: Wild Pokemons not yet been reported in San Diego:
  • Unown, Corsola.  (Note: Mareep, Pineco and Phanpy was mistakenly filtered out by all trackers.  Fixed in some now).  Corsola now seems to be tropical region exclusive.  Neither Unown nor Entei has been deteced by any trackers.  Unown does exist in wild, apparently all trackers have trouble detecting it.
  • Also not reported:
  • Probably not in game: Delibird, Smeargle, Celebi, Ho-Oh, Lugia, Suicune, Entei, Raikou
  • Babies are not in wild: Cleffa, Igglybuff, Pichu, Togepi, Magby, Elekid, SmoochumTyrogue
  • Regional: Heracross
  • Gen2s that require items in evolution are not available in wild, this incluidng those from Gen1 including Porygon2, Bellossom, Slowking, Steelix, Kingdra, Scizor, Politoed, as well as Sunflora from Gen2.  Despite people have shown screenshot, I have not read evidence that these were caught in wild (unless there is a bug in multiple trackers). Blissey and Crobat are availabe in wild, because their evolutions do not require stone. We have not seen Umbreon and Espeon in wild in San Diego.  We have data for 10523 rare spawns and these were not observed. So I can say for sure this is the case!
Coronado Spawn Rareness Analysis

Coronado (including Strand) spawns during 2/18/17 2:30am-2/20 7:00:pm (52 hours), Inland data are collected from UTC, Rancho Penasquitos and Zip code 92116.

Spawns in San Diego:
Evolution Level 1. Low counts for Mareep and Phanpy were due to tracker filtering.

Evolution Level 2-3. Notice Girafarig, Ampharos and Forrestress are more rare than Feraligatr, Jumpluff and Meganium. (Do trackers filter them?)

Rareness for Coronado Only:
Evolution Level 1

Evolution Level 2-3

Spawn Location Preference Analysis: Coronado versus Inland
Note: Coronado data includes some common ones but high IV, e.g., Hoothoot, Houndour, ignore those.
Comparison between Coronado Data vs Inland Data


Thursday, February 16, 2017

My Game of Pokemon GO: Stage ? - Region Exclusives

This is the last blog entry of my Pokemon GO Gen I series.  Gen II is released today with new sets of silhouette, which is why I am rushing to backup my Gen I memory data onto this disk space.

Tauros is exclusive to North America, Farfetch'd to Asia, Kangaskhan to Australia/New Zealand, and Mr Mime to Europe.  Except Tauros, the rest three certainly are out of reach (can no longer be hatched from eggs either).  The best I could do was to meet them in gyms, which was mistakenly counted as a failed encounter in the game.  Nevertheless seeing a Pokemon in a gym adds a clickable silhouette into your Pokedex.  Collecting all three silhouettes could be a practical relaxed definition for completing of the global Pokedex.

My collection of the regional silhouettes.  Mr Mime was seen in a gym near my house;  Farfetch'd in San Diego Airport on my trip back from Cancun;  Kangaskhan at Coronado Island.

Resources Saved for Future Intercontinental Trips

This section is just for my own bookmarking purpose.

Region-exclusive nests: https://thesilphroad.com/atlas, however, not well maintained.

Kangaskhan in Sydney:
However, Kangaskhan was declared to be as common as Pidgey and were filtered out from the map.  The explanation for this was humorous
Q: Hello, this is Pidgey. Why am I not on the map? I demand a refund #PidgeyLivesMatter.A: Hello Pidgey, THERE ARE SO MANY OF YOU, so to keep your trainers sane, we filter you out. Bellsprout, Caterpie, Clefairy, Ekans, Golbat, Goldeen, Horsea, Kangaskhan, Krabby, Nidoran♀, Nidoran♂, Oddish, Paras, Pidgeotto, Pinsir, Poliwag, Psyduck, Rattata, Sandshrew, Slowpoke, Spearow, Staryu, Venonat, Weedle and Zubat are also not on the map but they didn't complain, did they? #AllMonsAreEqualButSomeMonsAreMoreEqualThanOthers.


Farfetch'd:
It was mentioned that Farfetch'd spawn frequently nearer Taipei 101.

Mr Mime:

My Game of Pokemon GO: Stage VI.3 Lapras Map in San Diego

This blog shows statistics based on 94 recent Lapras Twitter reports collected from public feeds, not including private trackers.

80% of the spawns are in Coronado Island (blue), 16% in Oceanside (Carlsbad) (orange) and with only 4% in La Jolla (La Jolla Shores, La Jolla Cover and Bird Rock) (red). Lapras does occasionally spawn in Marina based on what I have seen in private trackers, but detailed data is not available.  So Coronado is definitely the place to go.  On a lucky day, we could see up to six spawns on the island (top bar graph).


We always wonder whether Lapras is more likely to appear at night or during weekends, or in a raining day (rare in San Diego though).  There appears to be a dip on Saturday (bottom bar graph), however, that is only on the edge of statistical significance (p-value ~ 0.05).  Lapras seem to spawn a bit more frequent at night time, with 57% between 8pm-8am and 43% between 8am-8pm.  In general Lapras spawns pretty uniformly every day throughout a week, it might take a short lunch and midnight break (middle bar graph).  However, catching a Lapras is just like fishing, patience is your best token.



My Game of Pokemon GO: Stage VI.2 Lapras - Programming Exercise

The game is now pretty much over for me, except a few lose ends to tighten up.  I walked enough Togepi candies but decided to hold on to the evolution, as Silph Road users suspected it might be available in the wild (yes, this is confirmed today with Gen II release!).  I walked enough Porygon candies ready for generation-2 evolution (but Valentine Event later just gave away Porygons).  I started walking Lapras to gain candies for power up.  My two friends were still one Pokemon away from their completion: one needed a Porygon and another needed a Lapras.  Time for me to get my hands wet and put my programming skills into use.

By this time, I had been monitoring Silph Road and were aware of a new wave of Twitter accounts was booming.  Coronado Island is just too far to patronize often from our locations, based on Twitter feeds I discovered Lapras occasionally spawned in La Jolla and Oceanside as well, which are closer to where we live.  However, Twitter feeds contains tons of Pokemons we did not care, i.e., 99% of the feeds were junks to us, making it unuseable.

One Friday night, I wrote an application, streaming feeds from several local Pokemon twitter accounts, filtering for keywords Porygon and Lapras, once located, it sent a text message to my friends.  This quickly led to successful Porygon captures.  One text message a few days later brought a nearly level-28 Lapras at La Jolla to my other friend.  All members of our Pokemon team now had completed the Pokedex! Hurray!!

The program streams messages from multiple Twitter accounts, filtering out those not containing keywords Porygon, Snorlax or Lapras in the text body.  It sends Google Map location and time-to-hide as text messages.